- Created on Friday, 15 May 2015 06:08
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(Waiting for Jobs- Image Courtesy: jharkhandemployment.nic.in)
The report card is out with the NDA Government set to complete its first year in office on 25th May. The Prime Minister Narendra Modi has himself implicitly given a perfect 10 to his Government. He did so the other day by claiming that his Government has achieved more in 10 months than what UPA regime attained in 10 years.
Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, a sworn Modi critic, has, on the other hand, given Modi Sarkar a big zero.
Mr. Kumar reportedly stated the government ‘wasted’ almost one year as it has failed to fulfill even a single promise made in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls last year.
Neither 24-carat self-praise nor rabid criticism can stand scrutiny before an objective assessment of the Government of the day.
Any independent analyst would accept the conclusion drawn by celebrated author Arun Shourie that Modi Government’s performance has been “good in parts”. He singled out Mr. Modi’s success in putting India on the centre-stage of global diplomacy and discourse for appreciation.
One may add three initiatives to the list of NDA’s good work: 1) big policy thrust to inland waterways, coastal shipping and the shipping sector as a whole and 2) Reforms in the defence and industrial manufacturing licensing arena, excluding the UPA legacy of policy paralysis in the field of small arms manufacture and 3) restoration of the business confidence, which had touched all-time low under UPA.
Mr. Shourie, who served as a powerful cabinet minister in Vajpayee Government, also told a TV news channel earlier this month that the talk of putting India back on the growth path was “hyperbole”. He described the economy policy as “directionless”.
A notable instance of hyperbole is the three social security schemes that were recently launched by Mr. Modi. They were originally announced in the Budget for the current fiscal. There is already a plethora of similar schemes. Some of these were announced by Atal Bihari Vajpayee Government and UPA Government. The three schemes under the banner Jan Suraksha are nothing but old wine in the new bottle. So is Jan Dhan Yojna. If at all any new social security scheme is required, it has to be for providing unemployment insurance to urban unemployed to help them meet their basic human needs.
The Government cannot substitute jobs with empty bank accounts (Jan Dhan Scheme) and illusionary financial benefit accruing from a personal tragedy that nobody wishes (accident or death) under Jan Suraksha. These gimmicks cannot hide the Government’s flop show on unemployment, which has increased under NDA. More of this a bit later.
As for the charge that the economic policy is directionless, one can say that the economy is operating in the “usual mode” as it functioned under the UPA. Similarly, the governance is in the “auto mode” with the same set of procedures and processes. The Government has so far made half-hearted and disjointed attempts to reinvent governance that is crucial for generating robust policy outcomes.
The Modi Government has so far cruised well on the policies platform built by the UPA Government. NDA’s one-year journey has been smooth largely due to benign global situation dominated by drop in prices of crude and other commodities.
Modi sarkar has thus tried to fly on UPA wings without acknowledging the bouquet of inherited initiatives right from national skills development policy to national manufacturing policy. It hardly deserves any credit on this count for much-trumpeted schemes such as Aadhar-based LPG subsidy payment through bank accounts and soil health cards.
Thus, BJP-led NDA Government’s performance has to be judged against on three parameters: Pre-poll promises especially by Mr. Modi; BJP’s Lok Sabha election manifesto and the policy paralysis and reforms backlog left by UPA Government.
The assessment on these three counts would virtually be the same as the one made at the time of completion of 100 days by the Modi Government and on other occasions through write-ups uploaded on this website. (Modi Govt should not let credibility deficit build up from word go published on 11th September 2014 and Modi Govt falters on growth & employment front uploaded on 3rd December 2014)
The trust, accountability and credibility deficits of the Government are thus increasing by the day. This columnist would give Modi Government only 4 out of 10 marks, if evaluation is confined within three parameters.
Mr. Modi’s pre-poll promises such as bringing back black money from abroad and distributing it among the public, fighting corruption and generating employment have turned out to be a mere rhetoric so far.
Not one dime has been repatriated (leave aside the Supreme Court-monitored case that was initiated under UPA) from abroad as a result of fresh investigation launched by NDA.
As for battling bribery, Lokpal has not been set up. Central Vigilance Commission is topless. So is Central Information Commission, which facilitates prevention of corruption and promotion of transparency & accountability. The list of anti-corruption agenda is long.
The perennial story of topless Government entities including public sector undertakings is being replayed merrily by NDA Government. This is obvious proof of Modi Sarkar’s failure to usher in good governance.
Congress President, Sonia Gandhi aptly lashed out at the Government in Lok Sabha on 6th May on this issue. She reportedly questioned the Government’s U-turn on transparency by noting that several top posts in CIC, CVC and Election Commission were lying vacant. She accused NDA of attempting to subvert the Right to Information Act.
Congress Vice-President, Mr. Rahul Gandhi has rattled the Government by repeatedly describing it as “Suit-boot Ki Sarkar.” He has accused NDA of amending UPA’s land acquisition law through ordinance to promote crony capitalism.
NDA has licked dust on this count by reportedly agreeing to refer the amended bill/ordinance to a joint committee of Parliament.
Would Mr. Modi drawn lessons from this humiliation? Would he cut certain ministers and Sangh satraps to size? Would he welcome advice from all quarters? He should embrace consultative process and not belittle legislature’s role through ordinances.
NDA ought to introduce innovations in the conflict resolution process. The surrender of land acquisition-related growth plot to Mr. Rahul Gandhi confirms NDA’s haughtiness and its failure reinvent the governance.
Had Mr. Modi ordered issue of a consultative paper on proposed changes in the land acquisition law, he would not have to live with jibes over his mistakes of wearing expensive suits. Modi Government can take sting out of Rahul’s attack by stipulating upfront relief and rehabilitation of persons affected by acquisitions.
Time is now ripe for Mr. Modi to make amends for his mistakes including over-reliance on what Mr. Shourie calls ‘trimurti’ of decision-makers comprising PM, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley and BJP President Amit Shah. He should hire fresh professional and political talent to improve governance.
He should make jobs generation as the focus of the inclusive growth process.
The army of jobless youth and under-employed persons would expect Mr. Modi to reflect over his call for jobs revolution delivered through an article uploaded on his personal website on 2nd March 2014 with tagline at the bottom ‘So Abki Baar, Modi Sarkar’.
The article headlined ‘India needs a Jobs revolution to fulfill the Aspirations of the Youth’ should serve as the foremost mantra of development. It should inspire the Government into fixing an annual target to generate employment.
Mr. Modi can emulate his Chinese counterpart Li Keqiang who announced his Government’s resolve to create at least 10 million new jobs in 2015.
Mr. Modi can also take leaf out of US President Obama’s ‘Plan to create Jobs Now’ through specific steps listed under the American Jobs Act.
The country is currently clueless about National Employment Policy (NEP), which Modi Government wanted to unveil after seven-year frustrating delay by the UPA Government.
NEP has been through a few drafts and a few notes for the Cabinet. The UPA Government had put in public domain draft NEP in August 2008. The last draft as backgrounder was unveiled by NDA Government in June 2014.
The urgency for NEP and jobs revolution can be gauged from the findings of the 4th Annual Employment & Unemployment Survey Report for 2013-14 released by Labour Bureau, Ministry of Labour & Employment, on 7th January 2015.
According to the report, the unemployment rate is estimated to be 4.9 per cent at All India level under the under the Usual Principal Status (UPS) approach. This is 0.2% higher than the rate reckoned in the previous annual survey (2012-13) that was released in September 2013 when UPA was in power.
Unemployment Rate (UR) is defined as the number of persons unemployed per 1000 persons in the labour force (employed & unemployed).
The unemployment rate in rural areas has increased to 4.7% from 4.4% during the same period. The rate has, however, declined in urban areas to 5.5% from 5.7%.
As regards under-employment which has been estimated for the first time in this annual survey, the latest survey says: “Only 60.5 per cent of persons aged 15 years and above who were available for work for all the 12 months during the reference period were able to get work throughout the year at All India level. In rural and urban sector, it was 53.2 per cent and 78.5 per cent respectively.”
The jobs story would remain incomplete without comparing data about employment generated during NDA and UPA regimes.
According to Labour Bureau's Quarterly Report on Changes in Employment in Selected Sectors (Oct, 2014 to Dec, 2014), five out of the eight sectors registered negative growth in employment. The sectors where jobs have shrunk include automobiles, metallurgy, handlooms and gem and jewelry.
The report, which was release last month, notes: “The results of the last four surveys covering the period December, 2013 to December, 2014 show that the employment at overall level has increased by 421 thousand during the period.”
This is marginally higher than 419,000 jobs created during the previous corresponding period (December, 2012 to December, 2013) when UPA was holding the reins.
Many more such insights are available in similar official reports. They should have been seized by the Government to finalize NEP and fire all cylinders on the jobs front.
Let Modi Government show humility for failing to live up to the people’s expectations. He should redefine NDA’s development agenda as growth + jobs.
As succinctly put by Labour Bureau's Director General Daljeet Singh, “High growth, however, is not a sufficient condition for poverty reduction; the pattern and sources of growth as well as the manner in which its benefits are distributed are equally important from the point of view of achieving the goal of poverty reduction. In this context, employment plays a key role in all developing countries.”
Published by taxindiaonline.com on 13th May 2015