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- Created on 31 July 2020
(Image Courtesy: taxindiaonline.com)
“Trade-Offs are central to economies, as they are to life. They are at the heart of economics because neither the decision-makers nor society can have everything it wants”. Two American economists, Donald E. Campbell and Jerry S. Kelly stated this way back in May 1994.
They penned their thoughts in an article on “Trade-off Theory” in The American Economic Review. Twenty-six years later, trade-offs have become central to prevention and control of Covid-19 pandemic.
Trade-Offs pendulum has swung across the world from obsessive bias for the lockdowns to the nightmares over the cost of lockdowns. Countries are struggling to strike a balance between preventing Covid deaths and preventing socio-economic crisis.
The shift is becoming palpable as lockdowns are hard to enforce for several months. And botched lockdowns have contributed to spread of virus in over-populated countries such as India and Pakistan. Defiance of the law of land is fashionable in such countries. Rampant poverty also forces people to eke out a living at risk of catching infection.
Reputed global institutions are now computing the humungous costs due to restrictions of all sorts on human mobility imposed to rein in pandemic. The hidden costs include actual non-Covid deaths & potential deaths due to negligence of non-Covid patients in future.
Trade-offs with Corona prevention have several dimensions and variants. The dimensions are: Lives versus Livelihood; health vs wealth; deaths vs jobs lost; Covid-cum-lockdown vs global $30 trillion fiscal deficit for 2020-2023 and Covid deaths vs non-Covid deaths.
Read more: World Now Grapples With Pandemic Management Trade-Offs
- Created on 15 April 2020

1918 Flu Pandemic Image. Courtesy: influenzaarchive.org
"Following every widespread epidemic or pandemic of influenza, the contemporary literature becomes virtually flooded with reports of scientific studies on the etiology and the epidemiology of the disease. By the time that recrudescences have ceased, interest has usually lagged and eventually research in this subject has practically ceased, only to be revived with the development of the next extensive epidemic”.
Dr. Warren T. Vaughan made this observation way back in September 1920 in preface to a Monograph captioned ‘Influenza - An Epidemiologic Study’.
This classical study traces history of influenza right from BC era to the 1918 one- a fact that might be disliked by climate change theorists. The 1918 infection is commonly referred to as Spanish flu- the most disastrous one in modern history. This flu wiped out 2% of British India’s population. Monograph notes that first “true pandemic” happened in 1580.
Dr. Vaughan observed: “To one who has had occasion to review the extensive literature of the last pandemic, it becomes apparent that many of the recent writers are uninformed, or at best only partially informed, regarding the rather extensive information accumulated during the 1889 epidemic. The longer one studies the observations made in 1889-93 the more firmly convinced one becomes that the recent pandemic was identical with the former in practically all of its manifestations”.
He added: “It is desirable that, following each epidemic prevalence some individual or individuals review the literature of the preceding epidemics, acquaint himself with what has been written regarding influenza in the intervening time up to the epidemic prevalence and correlate the work done in these two periods with the various reports regarding the latest epidemic”.
Dr. Vaughan’s observations are extremely relevant to Covid-19 pandemic from the standpoint of governance. The unfolding disaster reflects the same mistakes that the regimes & the public repeated in the past till a flu outbreak turned into pandemic.
Read more: Many Regimes Allowed Covid-19 to Rise as Pandemic
- Created on 07 October 2018

Dr. Manmohan Singh and P Chidambaram “destroyed” the country with their “intelligence and bookish knowledge”, stated Narendra Modi on 30th November 2013 at a political rally in Delhi.
After becoming Prime Minister, Mr. Modi has been undoing the so-called destruction with clinical disruption. Free from disadvantage of bookish knowledge, he has used his political pragmatism to peddle hard his model of disruptive development.
He, for instance, rocked the economy in 2016 through demonetization. He has transformed goods and service tax (GST) into a forms-filling, burdensome tax, which shows no signs of stabilization.
He pushed Aadhar from a mere identity for delivery of welfare benefits to the poor citizens into a big-brother tool to monitor almost everything and anything citizens do. No wonder, the Supreme Court had to rein in his Aadhar web’s intrusion into privacy domain.
NDA Government’s obsession to link one identity number with another one has created ripples of disruption. A case in point is several entities deducting income tax at source (TDS) from the Railways’ income. Mind you, Railways is a Government Department. And Government does not pay income tax.
Read more: PMJAY Symbolizes ModiJi’s Magic of Disruptive Development
- Created on 22 September 2018
"Insufficiency of dustbins tends to encourage the common practice of throwing litter and rubbish from upper windows on to the paved back spaces below and to intensify the lack of sanitation. Even in the sewered aeras, sewage stagnates as a result of blockage of drains and traps with refuse, and the areas at the backs of the lodging-houses seems be seldom clean. The conditions which prevail indicate the need for more stringent municipal administration”.
Anyone might wrongly take this as ‘mohalla negative news’ played up by Modi critics to spoil the ongoing social media-empowered Swachhta Hi Seva (SHS) campaign.
The fact is that the Quote is from the 1931 report of Royal Labour Commission (RLC). And the description relates to Rangoon (now Yangon), which was then part of British India.
What RLC said about the rot bedeviling Indian cities is far more relevant and alarming than what it was in 1930s. British India’s concern over the insanitary conditions is documented in other such reports and laws too as we would find later in this column.
Anyone, with an iota of respect for facts, can drive through any city and any village to find that official claims on Swachhta are a mere puff. Millions of corridors are splashed with paan spits. Countless window slabs and similar structures are littered with broken glasses and construction materials even in decent apartment buildings.
And the monumental proof of sanitation crisis is Delhi’s world-famous Ghazipur waste dump. It spans over 70 acres with maximum height of 62 metres. In November 2017, East Delhi Municipal Corporation sought expression of interest from specialized agencies to cope with fires that erupt at this landfill.
Delhi’s two other such dumps are also a disgrace. North Delhi Municipal Corporation (NDMC) has minced no words in articulating garbage crisis.
Read more: From British Raj to Swaraj, Garbage Woes Inundate India

